Five Against Eight

Here's something I came across recently that gave me pause for thought: Is the current Console Generation, the 8th, a repeat of the 5th Generation?

Of course, this means little to me seeing as I've given up on consoles for the greener pastures of Steam, but the comparisons are nothing less of intriguing:

Firstly, Sony seem to enjoying success with the PS4: They are offering a game console (first and foremost) which can accommodate developers wanting the make they game they want. But Sony's true success is by capitalizing on the missteps of the competition. Much like the PS1.

Secondly, there seems to be parallels between the Xbox One and the N64. At the time, many developers were getting tired of Nintendo's rigid policies and Nintendo's insistence on using the outdated medium of cartridges was creating even more cracks. Compare that to Microsoft's dictating how gamers can use their games.
Another parallel is how the N64 did enjoy some success despite it's limitations and Microsoft winning back some credibility by scrapping it's original plans. But Microsoft is no more lagging behind in sales and developer support than Nintendo did.

And thirdly, Nintendo may be making missteps that mirror that of Sega. Whereas Sega enjoyed success with the Megadrive/Genesis, in particular with an older audience, Nintendo had a big hit with the Wii, gaining interest with people who previously wouldn't have anything to do with gaming. But Sega took this consumer goodwill and dropped it with crummy add-ons and a fumbled Saturn launch - much like how Nintendo's release of the Wii-U failed to recognise the changes in the field e.g. mobile gaming.
And when the Saturn proved to be too expensive, hard to develop for and unnecessarily complicated, Sega took a tremendous hit, painting themselves as not knowing what they were doing. This hit eventually cost them dearly in the terms of money and respect. Doesn't that sound much like Nintendo's current position?
But not is all bad news: Both the Saturn and the Wii-U enjoyed/enjoys success with their unique first party library and whereas the Saturn had a solid 3rd party range (well at least in Japan), the Wii-U has become something of a home to independent developers.

(Source)

It's an interesting theory to be sure. I personally believe that we've reached the point where graphical tech isn't going to get any better (and no amount of motion controls or headsets will ever replace the humble controller) so seeing things reverting into a loop is hardly surprising. But if there is a loop in progress, then the stage is set for a massive shake-up. The question is what it's going to be...

...But I'm not going to hold my breath. I might turn blue and expire.